Oxford has been one of the fastest growing towns in Connecticut, sprouting from a population of 9,823 in 2000 to 12,890 in 2009 — but the latest enrollment data at the school district shows the student population finally leveling off.
The change in kindergarten through 12th grade enrollment is expected to drop a bit each year for the next 10 years, according to a report from the New England School Development Council.
The report was discussed at an Oxford school board meeting earlier this month.
By the numbers, the current district-wide enrollment of 2,176 students will drop to 2,133 gradually over 10 years, a 2 percent decrease.
That is a remarkable difference from the previous 10 years, when enrollment grew by nearly 31 percent, which prompted the town to build a high school.
The projections are based on data including the local birth rate, building permits for new homes and the sale of homes, which has slowed because of the economic downturn, according to Donald G. Kennedy, a demographic specialist who presented his agency’s report to the school board.
The enrollment projections could change if the economy improves.
“As soon as the economy and real estate situation improve in the region, additional in-migration may return to Oxford,” Kennedy said in the report. In-migration is when families with school-age children move to town and enroll their children in the schools.
The news comes to the Board of Education with a grain of salt, because there are already immediate needs that must be addressed before any long-term flattening of enrollment comes into play, said Rose McKinnon, chairwoman of the school board.
“There is flattening with some years, but not immediately. We have to address the immediate needs of the student body,” McKinnon said.
Example — space is tight at Oxford Center School, where there could be a need for another third-grade section.
If the projections prove accurate, it would mean the district does not have to spend as much money, in general, because it would not face the growing enrollment patterns that have driven it in the past decade, when the town built its own high school after many decades of busing students to nearby towns, including Seymour.
The district now serves 2,200 students in pre‑K through12th grade students in four schools, with a budget of $25.4 million.
