Each day Connecticut issues a list of positive COVID-19 cases, along with the number of people who have died.
Sometimes the reaction on social media is quick: “But what about recoveries?”
It’s an easy question to ask on Facebook.
But getting recovery data isn’t simple in Connecticut, as the government and hospitals are still prepping for a surge of COVID-19 patients that could stretch the healthcare system to its limits.
Yes, Johns Hopkins has a site that tracks COVID-19 worldwide, including recoveries.
But it’s probably too soon to have daily recovery data in Connecticut, according to a doctor interviewed by The Valley Indy.
“I think the focus initially has to be on trying to save people, and, as much as possible, trying to prevent this,” said Dr. Peter Krause, a senior research scientist at the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven. “So some figures are generally not available now because people really have to focus on other things. However, I think eventually we will have data like that. There will be information on how many people go into the hospital, recover and are fine.”
The “recovery” question is asked quite often on Facebook, including the Valley Indy’s page.
Sometimes the poster says he or she is looking for positive news. Sometimes they just want all available facts. Sometimes the question is meant to insinuate the media is playing up death for ratings.
But, in fact, at least twice this week, Connecticut reporters covering Gov. Ned Lamont’s daily COVID-10 updates have asked about recovery data.
On Tuesday, a reporter asked the question. Josh Geballe, the state’s chief operating officer, said the government is working on it.
“We’re looking at ways we could possibly track that,” Geballe said. “But this is another thing that would have to be manually tracked. There is no automated reporting from the hospitals about that. And, as you know, a lot of people are self-recovering at home and so there’s no instrumentation around that, so we don’t have reporting on that now.”
On Wednesday, a reporter asked again. Geballe again said the state is working on it.
On Thursday, Jessica Stelmaszek, the health director at the Naugatuck Valley Health District, mentioned the “recovery” question in her agency’s daily COVID-19 report to the public.
“The health district has received many requests to report “recovery” statistics,” she said. “Currently, there is no reliable recovery data available.”
Also playing into the “recovery” issue: there are not enough tests in the U.S.
A NY Times reporter and her family tested positive, but could not get tested again to make sure they were free of COVID-19:
13. We have been told there are no tests available to confirm we are negative for the virus, so have no way of knowing exactly when we are no longer contagious. This is frustrating and seems contrary to public health. We plan to act extremely conservatively.
— Dana Goldstein (@DanaGoldstein) March 31, 2020
It’s Complicated
Krause, the doctor interviewed Wednesday by The Valley Indy, pointed out he’s not a COVID-19 expert. But he is an infectious disease physician — and he is paying attention to the mountain of data emerging about the novel coronavirus.
If the recovery rate is defined as getting COVID-19 and not dying, then the rate is an estimated 98 to 99 percent, he said.
But since COVID-19 is new, there is much to learn, including its long-term effect.
“If recovery is defined as alive and no long term (health) problems, we do not have very good data for that as yet,” Krause said.
Complicating the issue is the impact the virus has on the body. It can damage the lungs, reducing oxygen to the heart, triggering a heart attack. A patient can get pneumonia or other acute respiratory diseases triggered by COVID-19.
The damage could be long-term after a patient tests negative for the virus.
“There has been a five-to-six month period of observation with some patients. And there have been observations that some of these patients have lung damage that doesn’t go away after the intubation tube is taken out,” Krause said. “These folks have shortness of breath. Their ability to exercise is certainly diminished. Some of them will not be able to breathe as well. That has been observed. What percentage of all cases is that? We don’t really have good figures yet.”
There could also be a mental-health aspect to recovery. People isolated on ventilators in hospitals could emerge with issues such as post-traumatic stress syndrome.
“Again, the percentage of that is not well delineated yet, but it has been described in some patients,” Krause said.
He said in an epidemic or pandemic, there are physicians who are directly treating patients who are conducting research and recording information as they go. There are other physicians and academics working on the data, too.
“They are studying this. They are trying to understand this,” Krause said. “Of those infected, what percent will get admitted to the hospital? What percent will be admitted to the ICU? What percent will be in the ICU and recover and be OK? What percentage will have long-term problems? What percentage will die? Knowing all this information is important.”
